The Sports Life

Fantasy Football: Quarterbacks

I have always felt that quarterbacks were undervalued in fantasy football. In most scoring formats, they put up more points than any other position (yes, including the vaunted running backs). However, most people tend to dismiss quarterbacks as not worthy of a high pick because they all put up around the same amount of points. I feel that the point differences between a top and mid-level quarterback and a top and mid-level running back are about the same.

In a standard Yahoo fantasy league, I'm going to look at the difference in fantasy points between the top ranked QB and RB and the 10th ranked QB and RB. The top ranked QB was Peyton Manning, with 356 points, and 10th was Aaron Brooks with 187 points, a 169 point gap. The top ranked RB was Shaun Alexander, with 194 points, and the 10th ranked RB was Willis McGahee with only 127 points. The point spread here is only 67 points. Because leagues usually have 2 runners and only 1 quarterback, ill compare Alexander to the 20th ranked runner, Thomas Jones, who had 97 points. Between first and 20th, there is a 97 point gap.

In addition to having a far lower point spread, the running backs amass far fewer total points. The top RB, Shaun Alexander, only has 7 more points than the 10th QB, Aaron Brooks. The only reason running backs are ranked so much higher than quarterbacks is because, for no real reason, people tend to snap up running backs early. If you don't pick a back early, you will be stuck with a Warrick Dunn or a Brian Westbrook, who, while still good, are much worse than the top backs.

Most every QB had a career season last year, which can be attributed to the new pass interference rules. So bear in mind that next year, after defensive backs and referees adjust to the new rules, QB numbers overall may go down.

The 2005 season QB rankings:

1. Peyton Manning: He threw for 4500 yards and 49 touchdowns last year, so he should be your top overall pick, not just the top QB. I don't think he will get 49 touchdowns again, as his previous career high was 29. But he should still get over 40 touchdowns with similar yardage numbers.

2. Daunte Culpepper: This guy should be a first-rounder. His season garnered almost no media attention, but he had one of the best seasons ever for a quarterback, setting an all-time record for combined yardage. He had 41 combined touchdowns and threw/ran for 5100 yards. In fact, in leagues that emphasize yardage, he could be more valuable than Peyton Manning. Similarly to Peyton Manning, his record-setting season came out of nowhere; his previous career highs were 4400 combined yards and 33 touchdowns. I personally believe that he will do just fine without Randy Moss (I think that Daunte benefited Moss's numbers more than Moss helped his). Nate Burleson is a fine #1 receiver, and expect something around 35 touchdowns and 4600 combined yards out of him.

3. Donovan McNabb: T.O. and Westbrook have ended their holdouts, and McNabb looks poised to put up similar numbers to last season. Expect over 3500 yards and 30 touchdowns.

4. Trent Green: He tends to get overlooked, but he has been more than solid for several years despite having no wide receivers at all. If Eddie Kennison can repeat last year, and if Marc Boerigter, a touchdown machine, can play well coming off an injury, he will be solid. Samie Parker could also play a big role in the Chiefs offense. I'm going to say he gets 4000 yards and 25 touchdowns.

5. Jake Delhomme: He is a very good quarterback, and with the return of Steve Smith, Stephen Davis, Deshaun Foster, and the rest of the team from injury, he should have an opportunity to improve his numbers from last year. The emergence of Keary Colbert last year was a pleasant surprise, and his continued development will take attention away from Steve Smith and open up the passing game. Expect 28+ touchdowns and 3600 yards out of him.

6. Drew Brees : His season did literally come out of nowhere, but he had 3150 yards and 29 touchdowns, and with Reche Caldwell and Keenan McCardell back from injury, he might even do better. Having Antonio Gates back from his holdout also helps his value. He should get 30 touchdowns and 3300 yards.

7. Tom Brady: Tom Brady is a solid starter, usually notching around 25 touchdowns and 3700 yards every year. The Patriots lost David Patten this offseason, but with the way they spread the ball around he shouldn't be a factor. They regain Ben Watson, and they signed a boatload of receivers, including Tim Dwight and David Terrell. Deion Branch and David Givens are a very underrated top 2, and expect around 3800 yards and 25 touchdowns from Brady.

8. Marc Bulger: He has an amazingly talented group of wide receivers, headlined by Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. He is also in an offensive system that is very pass-happy. I hear people saying his breakout year is going to come this year, but I don't believe it. I say 4000 yards and 20 touchdowns.

9. Brett Favre: Not many people would but Favre this low, but the loss of both the starting guards(Wahle and Rivera) from last year's o-line is troubling. The offensive success of this team stemmed in no small part from its stellar o-line, and Brett Favre will undoubtedly not get as much time in the pocket as he did last year. But its hard to bet against Favre, and I'm going to say he notches 3000 yards and around 22 touchdowns.

10. Jake Plummer : He throws way too many interceptions for people's liking, but he does get the numbers. You may not want to get him in a league that heavily penalizes interceptions, but his last year stats of 4100 yards and 27 touchdowns are appealing in all other leagues. Last year was by far a career year for him, so I'm going to say he gets 3000 yards and 20 touchdowns.

Vikas Paruchuri is a sports columnist who writes on the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB. He maintains a website at http://www.thehomefield.com with sports analysis and opinion columns.

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